Your forecast

There are some problems in the forecast this time around. 1 will it there be showers and storms today and tonight. 2 how hot will it get next week?

Models have not done well with the thunderstorm complex over IA/NE/IL and SD at all. This is going to play hard into the forecast. A few complexes of thunderstorms are riding along a frontal boundary over said areas, for the most part they are moving east with a slight north/northeast movement before diving southeast or IL. Looking at the 14z run off the Rap model there is no precip forecasted for most of the area. The 12z run off the NAM model shows my far southern areas of MN southwestern part of WI and all my IA counties getting showers and thunderstorms today. GFS is also in agreement with that. Looking at sat images and radar trends will run with showers and thunderstorms over said areas, as a short-wave pushes through. Tonight models show another thunderstorm complex setting up over the same areas.Those will be the areas that have the best chance at getting wet. Areas north of said areas should remain dry, however a shower or storm can’t be ruled out.

Temps today and tomorrow will be dependent on cloud cover. If we see more sun temps will have no problem going into the middle 80s, less sun will keep temps down into the lower 80s. So depending on where one is at in the forecast area look for temps to range from the lower 80s to middle 80s.

Frontal boundary is forecasted to lift north wards this weekend so there will be a slight chance of overnight showers and storms once again sat night. Int5o Sunday.Best chances will be down in my southern areas. Once again highs will be very dependent on how many clouds hang around for this weekend. We could easily see temps ranging from the lower 80s all the way up to the upper 80s.Overnight lows in the 60s.

Monday through Thursday. Here is where things become mucky. Computer model don’t agree on nothing in this period. The possibility of a long term heat wave is there on the ESMWF and CFS models as they build the upper level heat ridge into the area, if those two models pan out we could see temps well into the 90s and into the lower 100s for this period, and possible into the next upcoming weekend. For now am not going to get excited about that until I see other models jump on broad with EC and CFS. Here is why. The other models have short waves moving through the area, to go along with that they also show a trough setting up over the Great Lakes area.If this does happen we will see temps about where they have been yesterday and today, meaning no heat wave. I will have to keep an eye on this over the next two days, with any luck we will see models coming into a better agreement either way, then I can base my forecast on that. Right now it is really to hard to say what is going to take place as the 0Z runs off models have not handle the short term period well at all. 12 z picked up on it all, but that was a giving. Models still not see eye to eye in the long term.So right now will just hold the same forecast with highs, would be pointless to  even think about forecasting a long lasting heat wave at this time.

 The 4^th of July still looks dry for the most part, could see some morning shower and storms, however by time the fireworks shows we should see dry conditions with temps in the 70s.